The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

Gore dodges questioning from global warming skeptic Lord Christopher Monckton

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Gore avoids appearing with Lord Moncton at scheduled hearing by the U.S. House Energy and Commerce meeting on April 24. ‘House Democrats don’t want Gore humiliated’ according to the Climate Depot on Thursday. April 23, 2009.

Washington DC — UK’s Lord Christopher Monckton, a former science advisor to Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, claimed House Democrats have refused to allow him to appear alongside former Vice President Al Gore at high profile global warming hearing on Friday April 24, 2009 at 10am in Washington. Monckton told Climate Depot that the Democrats rescinded his scheduled joint appearance at the House Energy and Commerce hearing on Friday. Monckton said he was informed that he would not be allowed to testify alongside Gore when his plane landed from England Thursday afternoon. More…


Written by mzfeldm

April 26, 2009 at 11:08 am

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Scott Armstrong featured in “The Unwisdom of Solomon”

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Does the Wisdom of Solomon Extend to the Science of Forecasting?

by J. Scott Armstrong

SOLOMON ET AL. (2009) share their opinions with us about what will happen to the climate over the next 1,000 years. I am willing to accept that Susan Solomon and her coauthors are experts in their fields and that they are doing their best to provide useful long-term forecasts. For the purposes of discussion, let’s assume that they are the smartest people in the world and that, like King Solomon, they have great wisdom. But are their forecasts of any value? Evidence on the value of experts’ forecasts began to be published in the 1930s. I summarized the evidence in Armstrong (1978). When I found that people resisted the evidence, I proposed the seer-sucker theory: “No matter how much evidence exists that seers do not exist, seers will find suckers” (Armstrong 1980). Read the rest of this entry »

Written by mzfeldm

April 6, 2009 at 1:02 pm

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International Climate Change Conference (ICCC) 2009 talks now online

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Talks (videos, audios, and PowerPoint shows) have been posted for all of the talks given at the International Climate Change Conference in New York City in early March of 2009. Judge for yourself as to the quality of the scientific work presented. The talks are here.

Written by mzfeldm

March 30, 2009 at 8:33 pm

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Scott Armstrong interviewed by BBC

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Scott Armstrong was interviewed about the polar bear “crisis” by BBC on March 9. Here is the 6-minute interview.

Written by mzfeldm

March 16, 2009 at 9:00 pm

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Is the World Wildlife Fund Polar Bear Campaign Based on False Advertising?

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The World Wildlife Fund (WWF) has been running commercials to appeal for members and donations. The commercials have claimed that global warming is causing the population of polar bears to decrease rapidly thereby putting the species at risk of extinction. Might the WWF be engaged in false advertising? This the question that Scott Armstrong, a professor of marketing at the Wharton School who has taught advertising for over 35 years, is asking. Professor Armstrong will discuss this case at the International Conference on Climate Change on March 9 in New York City. He has been trying to contact senior officers of the WWF since December 12, 2008, to ask them to explain their side of the story. Despite many attempts, he has not received a response from the WWF. See a full description of the problem and prior correspondence below. Read the rest of this entry »

Written by mzfeldm

March 2, 2009 at 9:19 am

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Who would win the ‘Climate Bet’, Al Gore or Scott Armstrong?

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In his talk on March 9, 2009 at the International Climate Change Conference in New York City, Wharton Professor J. Scott Armstrong will announce the launch of a prediction market on the outcome of the „Climate Bet‟ he proposed to Mr. Gore in 2007. Prediction markets are a structured scientific approach to eliciting and summarizing peoples‟ opinions. The Climate Bet prediction market is part of a project led by Andreas Graefe, a researcher at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) in Germany, to examine the use of prediction markets for controversial public policy issues. Are prediction markets useful in aiding the democratic process? Read the rest of this entry »

Written by mzfeldm

February 23, 2009 at 11:24 pm

Test Your Climate Change IQ

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Take this one-question quiz and see how well you can forecast global average temperatures (Available for download here) Read the rest of this entry »

Written by mzfeldm

February 19, 2009 at 9:48 pm