The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

Archive for July 2007

Survey Closed: Pick the Outcome of the Global Warming Challenge

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Sorry, the survey has closed.
Results will be announced in the coming week.

All poll participants were entered into a random drawing for a signed paperback edition of Scott Armstrong’s book, Principles of Forecasting.

Written by climatebet

July 30, 2007 at 1:25 am

Posted in survey, the challenge

Updated version of the Green & Armstrong paper

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Click for the paper, “Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts

Substantial revisions have been made in the paper thanks to additional peer review. The authors continue to work on further revisions and they seek further peer review, especially from those who might see shortcomings with the paper.

Written by climatebet

July 29, 2007 at 9:54 pm

Another response from Al Gore to the Global Warming Challenge

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Thank you for thinking of Mr.Gore and inviting him to join you on June 27th. I apologize for the late response, but Mr.Gore has an extremely busy schedule and was not able to make it. I also read that you have a book called “Principles of Forecasting”, please feel free to mail that to Mr.Gore’s office at the address listed below. Thank you for understanding and good luck with everything in the future.

Kathryn Ankner

Office of the Honorable Al Gore & Mrs. Tipper Gore
2100 West End Avenue
Suite 620
Nashville, TN 37203

Click through for Scott Armstrong’s reply.

Read the rest of this entry »

Written by climatebet

July 29, 2007 at 9:49 pm

Why is the proposed climate bet for ten years?

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Scott Armstrong said that he selected ten years because he wanted to be pretty sure that he would be around to see how things turned out. Interestingly, this fits well with Gore’s position, as stated in his book, Assault on Reason (page 204):

“Many scientists are now warning that we are moving closer to several “tipping points” that could – within as little as ten years – make it impossible for us to avoid irretrievable damage of the planet’s habitability for human civilization.”

Written by climatebet

July 27, 2007 at 5:18 am

Gore calls for a scientific approach to the climate crisis!

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Scott Armstrong is still hopeful that Mr. Al Gore will join in the Global Warming Challenge to promote a scientific approach to forecasting climate change. Armstrong believes that they share many of the same objectives. Gore states in his latest book, The Assault On Reason:

Assault On Reason

“We must, for example, stop tolerating the rejection and distortion of science. We must insist on an end to the cynical use of pseudostudies known to be false for the purpose of intentionally clouding the public’s ability to discern the truth. Americans in both parties should insist on the reestablishment of respect for the rule of reason. The climate crisis, in particular, could cause us to reject and transcend ideologically based distortions of the best available scientific evidence.” p. 10

Gore, Al (2007). The Assault on Reason. New York: Penguin. ISBN 1594201226.

Written by climatebet

July 24, 2007 at 6:18 pm

KFYR 550AM – pH pHactor

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As one of our readers Tim Sandstrom commented, Scott Armstrong was live on the pH pHactor this morning in Bismarck, North Dakota. A link to this site is up on their page.

KFYR’s pH pHactor is hosted by Phil Parker and Jason Hulm, and airs Monday through Friday 5:30am-9:00am.

Written by climatebet

July 19, 2007 at 3:49 am

Another Donor Joins the the Global Warming Challenge

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Dave Barton (davidtbarton at comcast dot net), a self-employed mechanical engineer in central Maryland, has offered to add another $5,000 to Armstrong’s Global Warming Challenge. In other words, Gore now has the option of accepting Armstrong’s original $10,000 challenge or the expanded $15,000 challenge.

Dave says that his portion of the winnings would be donated to the Washington Scholarship Fund. He agrees with Armstrong that the primary reason for the challenge is to encourage a scientific approach to climate forecasting. He said if we can accomplish that goal, it makes little difference if he loses. But he does not think he will lose.

Written by climatebet

July 16, 2007 at 1:40 pm