Archive for July 2007
Sorry, the survey has closed.
Results will be announced in the coming week.
All poll participants were entered into a random drawing for a signed paperback edition of Scott Armstrong’s book, Principles of Forecasting.
Click for the paper, “Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts”
Substantial revisions have been made in the paper thanks to additional peer review. The authors continue to work on further revisions and they seek further peer review, especially from those who might see shortcomings with the paper.
Thank you for thinking of Mr.Gore and inviting him to join you on June 27th. I apologize for the late response, but Mr.Gore has an extremely busy schedule and was not able to make it. I also read that you have a book called “Principles of Forecasting”, please feel free to mail that to Mr.Gore’s office at the address listed below. Thank you for understanding and good luck with everything in the future.
Office of the Honorable Al Gore & Mrs. Tipper Gore
2100 West End Avenue
Nashville, TN 37203
Click through for Scott Armstrong’s reply.
Scott Armstrong said that he selected ten years because he wanted to be pretty sure that he would be around to see how things turned out. Interestingly, this fits well with Gore’s position, as stated in his book, Assault on Reason (page 204):
“Many scientists are now warning that we are moving closer to several “tipping points” that could – within as little as ten years – make it impossible for us to avoid irretrievable damage of the planet’s habitability for human civilization.”
Scott Armstrong is still hopeful that Mr. Al Gore will join in the Global Warming Challenge to promote a scientific approach to forecasting climate change. Armstrong believes that they share many of the same objectives. Gore states in his latest book, The Assault On Reason:
“We must, for example, stop tolerating the rejection and distortion of science. We must insist on an end to the cynical use of pseudostudies known to be false for the purpose of intentionally clouding the public’s ability to discern the truth. Americans in both parties should insist on the reestablishment of respect for the rule of reason. The climate crisis, in particular, could cause us to reject and transcend ideologically based distortions of the best available scientific evidence.” p. 10
Gore, Al (2007). The Assault on Reason. New York: Penguin. ISBN 1594201226.
Dave Barton (davidtbarton at comcast dot net), a self-employed mechanical engineer in central Maryland, has offered to add another $5,000 to Armstrong’s Global Warming Challenge. In other words, Gore now has the option of accepting Armstrong’s original $10,000 challenge or the expanded $15,000 challenge.
Dave says that his portion of the winnings would be donated to the Washington Scholarship Fund. He agrees with Armstrong that the primary reason for the challenge is to encourage a scientific approach to climate forecasting. He said if we can accomplish that goal, it makes little difference if he loses. But he does not think he will lose.