The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

Paper presented at the ISF 2009 in Hong Kong on “Forecasting for climate policy: C02, global temperatures, and alarms”

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Scott Armstrong presented a paper co-authored with Kesten Green, Andreas Graefe, and Willie Soon at the International Symposium on Forecasting in June that examined some of the lessons for climate policy from evidence-based forecasting. The authors described the lack of scientific long-term forecasts of global temperatures, the impacts of temperature changes, and the effects of policies. The paper explained the need for simple methods and conservative forecasts in the face of uncertainty and complexity and pointed out that simple no-change benchmark forecasts are sufficiently accurate for policy decisions. In contrast, simple causal models with CO2 as the policy variable are not credible.

Prediction markets for temperatures in three and ten years time agree that the no-change forecast is the more likely outcome than the IPCC 0.03C per annum forecast. Finally, similar (analogous) alarms in the past identified by the authors and others turned out to be false alarms. The slides for the talk are available as a PowerPoint file and as a PDF file.

Written by mzfeldm

July 19, 2009 at 4:18 pm

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UK Lawyer Slams Gore Over Court Case Claims

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Written by Ann McElhinney & Phelim McAleer

As appeared on The Climate Depot.

A leading UK lawyer, who represented the parent that sued Al Gore in the British High Court, has laughed off claims by the former vice-president that the judge ruled in his favour. Speaking from London John Day, a senior partner in Malletts Solicitors, said Mr Gore was misrepresenting what the judge had found. Mr Day represented a British parent who sued the UK Ministry of Education when they wanted to distribute and show Mr Gore’s documentary An Inconvenient Truth to every British school child. Read the rest of this entry »

Written by mzfeldm

July 19, 2009 at 1:13 pm

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Climate forecasting at the ISF in Hong Kong: A warm-up quiz

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Is carbon dioxide a good causal variable for forecasting global temperature? Have there been alarms in the past similar to the current alarm over dangerous manmade global warming and, if so, what happened? Can rule-based forecasting help forecast global mean temperatures? What do prediction markets reveal?

These questions and more will be answered at a climate forecasting session at the International Symposium on Forecasting presenting work by Green, Armstrong, and Graefe. To be useful, forecasts should be substantially more accurate than those from a simple benchmark method, for example the no-change model. We suggest taking the following self-administered quiz Please write down your estimate and then follow the link to find the answer. Read the rest of this entry »

Written by mzfeldm

June 4, 2009 at 3:06 pm

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New Prediction Market Released for the Climate Bet

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The climate bet between Scott Armstrong and Al Gore was released in a real money prediction market on Intrade. Gore predicts that it will be warmer, while Armstrong predicts no change. Who will be ahead after three years? Monitor the current status and place your bets here.

Written by mzfeldm

May 21, 2009 at 10:57 am

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A lighter note: One view of Al Gores’s approach to global warming

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Take a beak from the serious discussions on the topic to view this spoof of Al Gore, which appeared recently on liberalmadness.com

Written by mzfeldm

May 16, 2009 at 10:09 pm

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Written by mzfeldm

May 7, 2009 at 8:32 pm

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Gallup Poll Editor describes Al Gore’s losses in the global warming debate

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As published on The Climate Depot,  Gallup Poll Editor Frank Newport commented on Al Gore’s validity in the global warming debate.

Any measure that we look at shows Al Gore’s losing at the moment. The public is just not that concerned.” more

Written by mzfeldm

May 7, 2009 at 8:11 pm

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