The Global Warming Challenge

Dave Barton (davidtbarton at comcast dot net), a self-employed mechanical engineer in central Maryland, has offered to add another $5,000 to Armstrong’s Global Warming Challenge. In other words, Gore now has the option of accepting Armstrong’s original $10,000 challenge or the expanded $15,000 challenge.

Dave says that his portion of the winnings would be donated to the Washington Scholarship Fund. He agrees with Armstrong that the primary reason for the challenge is to encourage a scientific approach to climate forecasting. He said if we can accomplish that goal, it makes little difference if he loses. But he does not think he will lose.

Scott Armstrong’s challenge to Al Gore was mentioned in today’s Opinion Journal Political Diary (subscription only), which features commentary and analysis on US Politics by the Wall Street Journal.

Read up on the article by Taylor Buley below (reproduced with permission):

Weather Report

Al Gore thinks the climate crisis is so dire that he’s written a book, produced a movie and organized a world-wide music event to raise awareness. These have helped to make him a rich man, but is he willing to put his money where his mouth is? Don’t bet on it.

J. Scott Armstrong, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School and expert on long range forecasting, has offered to bet Al Gore $10,000 that he can do a better job of predicting the future of climate change than the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, whose forecasts of rising temperatures are cited in virtually every media account. Mr. Armstrong and a colleague, Kesten Green of New Zealand’s Monash University*, examined the IPCC’s work for last month’s 27th Annual International Symposium on Forecasting and found it essentially valueless according to established principles of forecasting. “Claims that the Earth will get warmer have no more credence than saying that it will get colder,” concluded the two.

So what’s Prof. Armstrong’s own climate prediction? No change at all. “The methodology was so poor that I thought a bet based on complete ignorance of the climate could do better,” says Mr. Armstrong. “We call it ‘the naïve model.’ Things won’t change.”

Professor Armstrong is the author of Long-Range Forecasting — the most frequently cited book on forecasting methods — and Principles of Forecasting, which was voted a “favorite book” by researchers and practitioners associated with the International Institute of Forecasters. If Mr. Gore accepts his challenge, Prof. Armstrong has proposed that each man put $10,000 into a charitable trust at a reputable brokerage house. The winner would then choose a charity to receive the total amount.

So far, Mr. Gore — usually quite the opportunist — has balked at the opportunity to establish credibility with global warming skeptics. “Please understand that Mr. Gore is not taking on any new projects at this time,” read a note to Mr. Armstrong from Mr. Gore’s communications director.

* Correction: Monash University is located in Melbourne, Australia. 

Armstrong and Green’s work was featured in the Sydney Morning Herald’s July 7, 2007 article, “Chorus does not justify climate prophecies” by Michael Duffy:

The next week promises some excitement for those who believe global warming threatens our future. Today they can enjoy the Live Earth concert in Sydney. But on Thursday they will have to suffer ABC TV’s showing of The Great Global Warming Swindle, a British documentary sceptical of the orthodoxy…

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This statement does not preclude Mr. Gore from taking action at a future time. Mr. Gore has not responded directly, and there seems to be a communication problem as his involvement in Global Warming Challenge would take him only five minutes. Professor Armstrong remains hopeful that Mr. Gore will lend his prestige and influence to furthering a scientific approach to climate forecasting.

Armstrong Remains Hopeful that Al Gore will Spend Five Minutes to Aid the Scientific Approach to Climate Change Forecasting

It was falsely reported through the media that Al Gore replied “no” to the Global Warming Challenge. What his Communications Director and Scheduler said was, “Please understand that Mr. Gore is not taking on any new projects at this time.” This does not preclude taking action at a future time.

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Click here for the full-length video of the television interview. Broadcast live Thursday, July 7th, 2007 at 7:15am.

Prof. Scott Armstrong from Penn’s Wharton School talks about how he can’t find any forecast model that predicts global warming. He has offered to make a bet with Al Gore over climate change. So far, Gore hasn’t taken him up on it.

Click here for the audio of the interview. Click “Listen now” and move the slider to about 34 minutes to hear the relevant clip.

Making predictions is a difficult business, Dr Kesten Green an expert in the field, says that many scientists when looking at the future impact and extent of climate change fail to take into account the basic principles of forecasting.    

Counterpoint is a program on the Radio National Network of the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, presented by Michael Duffy and Paul Comrie-Thompson. 

• Special Report with Brit Hume recently covered the challenge with the piece “One Expert Is Willing to Bet Money Al Gore Is Wrong About Global Warming.” Interview by FOX News Channel’s Matthew Hill.

Armstrong says he hasn’t gotten a response yet — and Gore’s office did not return a call from us asking for reaction to the challenge.

• Armstrong was also featured on American Family Radio News. Interview was done by Jim Brown, education reporter for American Family Radio News.

• Australia’s Courier Mail featured Dr. Kevin Trenberth as well as Armstrong and Green’s work in the article “Forecasts all up in the air.” Article by Bob Carter.

In a paper [presented] at the 27th International Symposium on Forecasting in New York this week, Scott Armstrong and Kesten Green audit the relevant chapter in the IPCC’s latest report. They find that “in apparent contradiction to claims by some climate experts that the IPCC provides ‘projections’ and not ‘forecasts’, the word ‘forecast’ and its derivatives occurred 37 times, and ‘predict’ and its derivatives occur 90 times” in the chapter.

Are you waiting for Gore’s response too? Why not digg us? 

Updated: Gore’s office responded on Thursday, June 28th, 2007.

See this post for more details.

“Meet the Ivy League professor and expert on forecasting who is challenging Al Gore to a $20,000 bet that he is wrong on global warming.“

This Monday June 25th, 2007, the article “Put your money where your ‘myth’ is” by Brendan O’Neill was featured on spiked-online.com, an online magazine with a global and critically minded readership. Armstrong was interviewed for the article by O’Neill. Read on for two excerpts from the article.

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