Letter to Al Gore
Tuesday afternoon, June 19th, 2007, a letter with the terms of the challenge attached was both faxed and mailed to Al Gore. The full contents of the letter are published below:
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June 19, 2007
Honorable Albert Gore
2100 West End Avenue
Suite 620
Nashville, TN 37203Fax: 615-327-2227
Dear Mr. Gore,
A “Global Warming Challenge” is attached. I think the challenge serves our mutual interest in developing better public policy. The terms of the challenge can be easily changed upon mutual agreement.
The primary objective is to improve the application of scientific methods in forecasting climate change and, thus, to use better forecasting methods. In addition, it may provide funding for one of our charities.
The objectives are attainable no matter which of us would “win” the challenge. The fact that we would be joining together in this challenge should draw the attention of scientists to the need for using the best forecasting methods and conducting proper validation tests.
Might you be able to respond by the time of my International Symposium on Forecasting talk on the morning of Wednesday June 27? This could be something as simple as “accept,” “decline,” or “contemplating.” Or it could be a longer response. You, or one of your representatives would be welcome, of course, to be a guest at this conference.
I believe that you already know the chairperson, Kajal Lahiri, from his days in Arlington when your sons played on the same soccer team. If you can attend, Kajal will make provisions for you to respond to this challenge. The conference runs from Monday through mid-day Wednesday.
Would you be interested in receiving a copy of my Principles of Forecasting book? I will be happy to send you a copy if you tell me what address to use.
Sincerely,
J. Scott Armstrong
Professor of Marketing
The Wharton School
University of Pennsylvania
Philadelphia, PA 19104
armstrong at wharton dot upenn dot edu
but will he do anything with it….hope so…
I bet $100 that Mr. Gore will not accept the challenge (but I hope I lose this bet). Public policy should not be determined by those who are not willing to debate the science. It seems to me that Mr. Gore thinks the time for debate is over and that a science-based debate would be bad for his cause. A debate might give the public the idea that the following statement is bogus….
93% of all future surface temperature increases are caused by increases in CO2. This outcome might not be good for those who are convinced computer models (that predict 100 years into the future) are never wrong.
BTW, I once made a bet with Julian Simon on the future price of sawtimber and in 1997 he sent me a $1000 check. “The Simon-South bet on pine sawtimber” was not given any coverage by the major news media. I hope the media covers the Armstrong-Gore bet (both now and in 2017) and I hope the debate takes place.
global warming is becoming such a obvious problem that someone somewhere other than Al Gore needs to step up to help drive the bus!