The Global Warming Challenge

Is carbon dioxide a good causal variable for forecasting global temperature? Have there been alarms in the past similar to the current alarm over dangerous manmade global warming and, if so, what happened? Can rule-based forecasting help forecast global mean temperatures? What do prediction markets reveal?

These questions and more will be answered at a climate forecasting session at the International Symposium on Forecasting presenting work by Green, Armstrong, and Graefe. To be useful, forecasts should be substantially more accurate than those from a simple benchmark method, for example the no-change model. We suggest taking the following self-administered quiz Please write down your estimate and then follow the link to find the answer. Read the rest of this entry »

The climate bet between Scott Armstrong and Al Gore was released in a real money prediction market on Intrade. Gore predicts that it will be warmer, while Armstrong predicts no change. Who will be ahead after three years? Monitor the current status and place your bets here.

Take a beak from the serious discussions on the topic to view this spoof of Al Gore, which appeared recently on liberalmadness.com

As published on The Climate Depot,  Gallup Poll Editor Frank Newport commented on Al Gore’s validity in the global warming debate.

“Any measure that we look at shows Al Gore’s losing at the moment. The public is just not that concerned.” more

Gore avoids appearing with Lord Moncton at scheduled hearing by the U.S. House Energy and Commerce meeting on April 24. ‘House Democrats don’t want Gore humiliated’ according to the Climate Depot on Thursday. April 23, 2009.

Washington DC — UK’s Lord Christopher Monckton, a former science advisor to Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, claimed House Democrats have refused to allow him to appear alongside former Vice President Al Gore at high profile global warming hearing on Friday April 24, 2009 at 10am in Washington. Monckton told Climate Depot that the Democrats rescinded his scheduled joint appearance at the House Energy and Commerce hearing on Friday. Monckton said he was informed that he would not be allowed to testify alongside Gore when his plane landed from England Thursday afternoon. More…

Does the Wisdom of Solomon Extend to the Science of Forecasting?

by J. Scott Armstrong

SOLOMON ET AL. (2009) share their opinions with us about what will happen to the climate over the next 1,000 years. I am willing to accept that Susan Solomon and her coauthors are experts in their fields and that they are doing their best to provide useful long-term forecasts. For the purposes of discussion, let’s assume that they are the smartest people in the world and that, like King Solomon, they have great wisdom. But are their forecasts of any value? Evidence on the value of experts’ forecasts began to be published in the 1930s. I summarized the evidence in Armstrong (1978). When I found that people resisted the evidence, I proposed the seer-sucker theory: “No matter how much evidence exists that seers do not exist, seers will find suckers” (Armstrong 1980). Read the rest of this entry »

Talks (videos, audios, and PowerPoint shows) have been posted for all of the talks given at the International Climate Change Conference in New York City in early March of 2009. Judge for yourself as to the quality of the scientific work presented. The talks are here.

Scott Armstrong was interviewed about the polar bear “crisis” by BBC on March 9. Here is the 6-minute interview.

The World Wildlife Fund (WWF) has been running commercials to appeal for members and donations. The commercials have claimed that global warming is causing the population of polar bears to decrease rapidly thereby putting the species at risk of extinction. Might the WWF be engaged in false advertising? This the question that Scott Armstrong, a professor of marketing at the Wharton School who has taught advertising for over 35 years, is asking. Professor Armstrong will discuss this case at the International Conference on Climate Change on March 9 in New York City. He has been trying to contact senior officers of the WWF since December 12, 2008, to ask them to explain their side of the story. Despite many attempts, he has not received a response from the WWF. See a full description of the problem and prior correspondence below. Read the rest of this entry »